Chief Scientists of the Air Force usually spend their time trying to figure out how to build better satellites or make jets go insanely fast. Which makes Dr. Mark Maybury, today’s chief scientist, a bit of an outlier. He’d like to build a set of sensors that peer into people’s souls — and forecast wars before they erupt.
Maybury calls his vision “Social Radar.” And the comparison to traditional sensors is no accident, he tells Danger Room. “The Air Force and the Navy in this and other countries have a history of developing Sonar to see through the water, Radar to see through the air, and IR [infrared] to see through the night.
Well, we also want to see into the hearts and the minds of people,” says Maybury, who serves as the top science advisor to the Air Force’s top brass.
But Social Radar won’t be a single sensor to discover your secret yearnings.
It’ll be more of a virtual sensor, combining a vast array of technologies and disciplines, all employed to take a society’s pulse and assess its future health. It’s part of a broader Pentagon effort to master the societal and cultural elements of war — and effort that even many in the Defense Department believe is deeply flawed. First step: mine Twitter feeds for indications of upset.
“We’re supposed to provide ISR,” says Maybury, using the military acronym for intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance. “But our constituents [say], ‘Don’t just give me a weather forecast, Air Force, give me an enemy movement forecast.’ What’s that about? That’s human behavior. And so [we need to] understand what motivates individuals, how they behave.”
Maybury, dressed in his preferred outfit — a double-breasted black blazer and silver, rectangular glasses — discussed his Social Radar notion as part of a 90-minute interview in his Pentagon office, his native Massachusetts accent growing thicker as the discussion drew on.
An artificial intelligence and language processing specialist, he’s been working for the military, on and off, since the mid-1980s. But as the counterinsurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan wore on, he found himself drawn further and further into what he calls the “human domain” of combat.
In the last few weeks, the Pentagon may have downgraded counterinsurgency in its strategy revamp.
In the last few weeks, the Pentagon may have downgraded counterinsurgency in its strategy revamp.
But the need to spot potential troublespots early — and to understand how American actions might impact those restive populations — clearly isn’t going away. U.S. special forces are still training foreign armies (and impacting the people of those countries).
The Shadow Wars continue — from Yemen to Pakistan to Mexico. And the geopolitical chess match with China will require deep knowledge of all of the pieces on the board.
Using biometrics, Social Radar will identify individuals, Maybury noted in his original 2010 paper on the topic for the government-funded MITRE Corporation.
Using biometrics, Social Radar will identify individuals, Maybury noted in his original 2010 paper on the topic for the government-funded MITRE Corporation.
Using sociometrics, it will pinpoint groups. Facebook timelines, political polls, spy drone feeds, relief workers’ reports, and infectious disease alerts should all pour into the Social Radar, Maybury writes, helping the system keep tabs on everything from carbon monoxide levels to literacy rates to consumer prices.
And “just as radar needs to overcome interference, camouflage, spoofing and other occlusion, so too Social Radar needs to overcome denied access, censorship, and deception,” he writes.
It sounds almost laughably ambitious. And Maybury agrees the notion may be more of a long-term “organizing metaphor” than a particular program.
But the building blocks are already being set in place, Maybury insists. In his original paper, Maybury notes that there are efforts underway at the MITRE Corporation that could help make a Social Radar real.
For instance, there’s the “Forum and Blog Threaded Comment Analysis (FABTAC)” project, which analyzes online discussions “for intelligence and operations.” There’s “Exploring Soft Power in Weblogistan,” which developed “foundational Farsi and Dari language processing tools to enable analysis of large volumes [of] social media content.”
Most importantly, the language processing specialist says, new tools are coming online to perform what’s called “sentiment analysis” — identification of whether a particular status update is positive or negative.
Analyze those sentiments in the aggregate, to see if people are generally content, and associate those feelings with particular geographic regions, and Maybury believes you’ve got the start of a Social Radar. He’s even developed a mock-up of a “Social Radar” desktop, complete with a “heat map” for tracking relative happiness.
The Air Force’s chief scientist isn’t alone in this effort. Over three years, the Pentagon has spent more $125 million on dozens of projects meant to better quantify, model — and, eventually, foresee — the human, social, cultural, and behavioral dimensions of conflict. Several of these “HSCB” systems are now in use in U.S. military units across the globe.
Darpa’s Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS), for one, is being expanded to cover six of the Defense Department’s geographic commands, covering 175 different countries.
Yet within the Pentagon, there are deep divisions over the program’s efficacy.
“Project supporters have marshaled evidence to demonstrate the validity of its approach,” notes one recent internal review of HCSB projects, “while critics have pointed to deficiencies in the scorekeeping method that exaggerate the accuracy of ICEWS forecasts.”
“Project supporters have marshaled evidence to demonstrate the validity of its approach,” notes one recent internal review of HCSB projects, “while critics have pointed to deficiencies in the scorekeeping method that exaggerate the accuracy of ICEWS forecasts.”
Well-respected retired generals and top military officials have rejected as hopeless the idea that human societies can be effectively modeled, or that human behavior can really be forecasted.
“They are smoking something they shouldn’t be,” retired Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper
famously quipped to Science magazine when this push began.
“We do better than human estimates, but not by much,” one Pentagon-funded predictioneer admitted.
Maybury is quick to push back on the criticism. “Just like nobody could imagine seeing through the night or seeing through water, nobody can imagine seeing attitudes. And actually, in my view, that’s very much a future reality,” he says.
And Social Radar is only the leading edge of the Air Force’s effort in the area. The service is boosting its foreign language skills. Maybury wants his more traditional sensors to get better at spotting human behavior. “If I’ve got a radar combined with an [standard camera] combined with an IR, maybe I can tell what kind of action a human is performing,” he says.
The Air Force Research Lab is funding a study by San Francisco State University psychology professor (and former U.S. Olympic Judo Team coach) David Matsumoto to find “universal markers of deception.”
And in a presentation about the Air Force’s “contributions” to HCSB efforts, Maybury even lists
“Metropolitan Area Persistent Sensing” — city-wide spying — as well as “micro
munitions that limit collateral damage” and “non lethal directed energy
weapons.”
Accompanying the words is a picture of the weapon from the Air Force’s allegedly non lethal arsenal. It’s a ray gun that shoots invisible cousins of microwaves which make people feel like they’re being blasted by an open furnace.
Maybury admits these weapons are not, strictly speaking, part of the Defense Department push to better understand the human aspects of conflict. But “preservation of human life is a premium when one is attempting to generate support of the local population, stability and security while not increasing grievances,” he emails.
Perhaps a fully-functioning Social Radar will be able to gauge the impact of such a weapon on people’s allegiances. But it’s worth noting that, in 2010, when the heat ray was sent to Afghanistan for testing, commanders there shipped it back home without squeezing off a shot.
Photo, illustration: USAF
16 comments:
There was something that I had heard on the radio the other day, but after having done a little search on the net, I was not able to come up with any further details. What it seems to involve is microchips being planted in the brains of Israelis? Yes that's right Israelis. What I was able to find though was a DVD that details Israeli teenagers being indoctrinated for the use of microchips. They are being taught just how easy it is to scan the chips for the best results. The implantation of microchips is rapidly ever spreading over the United States with a great deal of the citizens of Mexico already having been microchiped. Type Israeli teenagers being microchipped into a search engine just to see what you are able to come up with.
Not sure if this is connected to the microchips of above comnment, but this news article seemed like a 'hoax' when I first read it but it's kosher:
http://www.boycotttesco.com/index.html
What do you think?
Catherine
Hey Bob,
I have a question for you.
When do you think the latter days began?
Dan 12:4 But thou, O Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book, [even] to the time of the end: many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall be increased.
Thanks ahead of time for your answer.
Gail
Hi Bob,
I guess I should explain myself as to why I ask such a question.
I keep wrestling with Sir Robert Anderson’s explanation for the book of Daniel. In the verse listed in my last comment it says that the book is closed till the latter days. I believe that to be so because the Bible says it. If the book of Daniel was closed till the latter days when people are running to and fro and knowledge is increased then is it possible that Sir Anderson got it wrong?
This may sound a little nitpicky but would the late 1800’s and the first couple of decades of 1900’s be considered the latter days? According to Hosea 3:5, the latter days are after the return of the children of Israel to their land.
Hosea 3:5, Afterward shall the children of Israel return, and seek the LORD their God, and David their king; and shall fear the LORD and his goodness in the latter days.
I am not trying to discredit Sir Anderson. He was a very educated and Godly man according to sources: I am in search of the truth. Another problem I have is: I can’t see how he could come to a particular date of Christ crucifixion when the actual date eludes the masses. Therefore how can he claim that there were exactly 69 weeks (483 years) from one point to the crucifixion?
Thanks and many
Blessings,
Gail
PS. I know this isn't exactly a response to the article posted but it does have something to do with the last days.
Hi Gail,
The writer to the Hebrews in Chapter 1:2 calls the days in which he wrote "these last days". So I would think the last days began when Jesus ascended and we began awaiting his return in glory. But there must come a time when we eneter the "Last of the last days" and things begin to speed up.
Many shall run to and fro is now believed to mean not transport increase but running to and fro and knowledege increasing meaning running to and fro searching the book and knowledge and understanding of the end times events begins to increase.
Hope this helps.
Sister Gail; the word of God says that all of the prophecies would be fulfilled within the course of a single generation after the Jews had been returned to their promised land. That happened in 1948. A generation lasts 25 years, and so that generation finished in 1973. We are now in the gap period with the end times, or the 70th week of Daniel, commencing after the signing of a seven-year covenant by the Antichrist with many, which most have assumed would mean between the Jews and the Arabs in the Middle East. That analogy may be open to different interpretations depending on both the mindset and the teachings of different individuals, as has been evidenced by Bobs reply to the same question. However, with the tremendous falling away we are now witnessing, coupled with the ever increasing knowledge via such mediums as the Internet, that all of the signs are now there to suggest that the end times may be nigh on almost right at hand. Even though those who had lived a thousand years ago would have more than likely said the same thing, there has been certain developments in recent times, such as the reformation of the Revised Roman Empire and the ever increasing introduction of the Mark of the Beast that have not been evident in times gone by. I hope that I have been of some assistance in relation to your enquiry. God bless you in your search for the truth.
While I still believe the Bible says the truth when the writer to the Hebrews calls his times these last days, there has to be a time when we reach the last, last days and the end of the end times. Robert is correct when he says so much has taken place in recent years that seems to be the fulfulment or at very least the preparation for the fulfilment of prophecy. It seems to me that as we enter the final stages of these days more evidence will appear to confirm we are indeed in the final generation.
Re;the statement of the Lord when he said "This generation shall not pass til all be fulfilled" has been a problem for liguistic experts because the term he used could mean the generation living when he spoke the words, the generation living when these events began to come to pass or it could mean this people, the Jewish people would still be around when all is fulfilled.
A generation could be 40, 70 or even 100 years as noted in Genesis when the Lord told Abraham his people would be slaves in Egypt for 400 years and would come out in the fourth generation.
Robert's view is interesting. I have never heard that before ...that we are in the gap betwen the generation ending and the 70th week begining. If that is the case then the generation of 40 years from 1948 on did not see all these things as that generation ended in 1988. But if a generation is 70 or 100 years then we are still on course.
Thanks Gail and Robert. You get my brain ticking!
I have read Sir Robert Anderson's very scholarly work 'The Coming Prince'. The time and effort that he put into it is beyond my comprehension. It was this book that kindled my interest in biblical prophecy. Not that I claim to fully understand everything in this work. As I understand it, it was his mixing of 'solar' and 'lunar' years into his calculations that threw doubt upon his efforts. Subsequently I have read all his major works. Sir Robert was a believer in the pre-trib And 'many comings' of Christ. Yet despite my utmost respect for his efforts I do NOT agree with his eschatological views!
The word 'generation' as I understand it is almost indeterminable. You can almost say 'The generation of mankind'; that would be so I believe about 7000 years, including the coming messianic age.
There is as I understand a 'principle of first mention', the word 'generation' appears in the bible for the first time in Genesis 2.4, I can't understand from this scripture how a time element can be extracted for a 'generation', especially as before the flood lifespans were considerably greater than they are now.
When our blessed Lord and saviour Jesus Christ quoted Luke 21.32, He meant the generation of mankind not those present in His audience at that particular time.
As regards Hebrews 1.2 the writer was quoting that these were the beginnings of the 'Last days'. Now we are nearer to the end of the 'Last days'. Time is further put into context in God's economy by that well kown scripture in 2 peter 3.8.
I believe that B.W.Newton wrote a scholarly exegesis about the word 'generation' and its definition. We can't believe today's secular definitions for this word, not when they call 'good', 'wicked'!
Sorry to have to argue, but all of the above seeming to hinge on what one supposes is the length of a generation, with a thousand years being one day and one day being a thousand years once again, all of the above is open to interpretation. However I am sixty years of age, and if I had happened to have produced children during the course of my lifetime, which I have not, if I had sired them when I was say 35 years of age, (having lead a very quiet life that I did up until that point) then they would not be 40 or older. On the other hand, a friend of mine whom I have known for approx 30 years is slightly older in his middle sixties with his oldest child now being only 27. I am sure that most who are reading this would agree that the difference between my friend's children and me is a generation, or 25 years and is nothing like 40 years. The whole point of this being that what I believe the Lord was referring to as the length of a generation as we approach these end times is the length of time that is generally thought of as being a generation at the time the prophecy was being fulfilled; that being 25years, and not 40 or 70 or a hundred. There is no one that I know of that has produced children in these modern times at the age of 100 thereby making them the next generation, and so in that sense the argument that a generation is 40 or 70 or even a hundred years is irrelevant.
What Robert says above does indeed make a lot of sense.
Having said that I come on sites like 'Shofar' hopefully to learn and to have on-line fellowship with I hope like minded believers. I am not an erudite man;just a simple soul!
I sometimes transgress by mentioning that 'R' word!
With 'generation' in mind again, I looked up my tatty old KJV 1611 and found a note I entered next to Luke 21.32; 'Generation-from 'Genetai' which means;'To BEGIN to take place.' If this word did not have this meaning surely I would take that scripture as meaning that all those events recorded are historical?
Friends; As a final word on this subject matter, I have done a little more research on the timing for the number of years of a generation and it seems the standard round number for a generation is 40 years is well attested. The "forty-year" period occurs about a dozen times in the Bible. It is the reason why some scholars do not accept the 480 years between the Exodus and Solomon's temple as found in 1Kings 6:1 to be a literal span of time. They see it as a schematic way of referring to a conventional 12 generations. I mention this to show the common consent to the idea of a generation as 40 years. Many of the lengths of rule of the Judges, along with the first three kings of Israel (including Solomon), reigned 40 years. However, as with Moses length of years, I believe they are all literal. If we were then to look at timing for the return of the Jews to their promised land of 1948 and then add forty we would come up with a number of 1988. Alternatively, if we look at what happened in 1967 when Israel regained control of Jerusalem and add the forty once again the total sum of years would then bring us up to 2007. Even if we were to take my original supposition and then add it to either 1948 or 1967, we would come in well under 2012. The bottom line is that no matter how we look at it from the figures posted above we are still in the gap period between when Israel became a nation and the signing of the treaty of Daniel Chapter 9, Verse 27, also known as the covenant of the Antichrist. Finally, there is nothing that I can find anywhere on the net that even comes close to suggesting that a Biblical generation lasts a 100 years, so we can more or less count that one out of the equation as it just does not seem to be feasible. Thanks for listening
Part 1
Hi Everybody,
Thanks so much. I appreciate any help I can get. I study all the time and have no one to swap ideas with. My mamma and I talk about it sometimes but it’s mostly me that does the talking. She doesn’t study like I do, so naturally she agrees with me most of the time. She’s not a very good sparring partner. LOL
RE: The word generation: My thoughts.
There are a few definitions for the word generation. One way is how Robert describes it: The age a person is when they procreate and another generation is started. When Jesus came he created another type of generation: a spiritual generation. People who all live at the same time is also a meaning tacked on to the word generation. Last but not least is a generation that is the average length of one person’s life. After much study I tend to think that the latter (length of life) is the context of Matthew 24 and 23, and in my opinion it is a period of approximately seventy years.
When Jesus walked this earth he prophesied about two destructions of Jerusalem: one that would end with the temple being torn down and the Jews scattered abroad; in a sense this destruction could be considered a type death of physical Israel.
The second destruction would come after the rebirth of Israel starting the generation that would end with Christ ruling from the throne of King David in Jerusalem forever. Both of these generations are addressed in Mat 23 and 24.
Mat 23:36--Verily I say unto you, all these things shall come upon this generation.
Mat 24:34--Verily I say unto you, this generation shall not pass, till all these things be fulfilled.
If we look at the generation of Mat 23 (Christ’s physical generation) we can get an idea of how long Jesus was talking about.
Jesus was literally talking to the people standing around him: the Pharisees, the Scribes, believers, and non believers. He was telling them that they would see the things he told them about in a particular space of time: a generation. It would be a generation that more than likely would have started when Christ was born and would continue after his death until the temple is destroyed.
Matthew 17:17 Then Jesus answered and said, O faithless and perverse generation, how long shall I be with you? …
How long shall I be with you =’s I will be leaving and you will still be here.
When Jesus was born two types of generations began: one that would last for the natural length of a person’s life (Psa. 90:10) and one that will last for eternity (Psa. 22:30). In this instance Jesus was speaking in the context of the natural length of life: approximately seventy years. How do we know that Christ’s physical/natural generation was seventy years? The temple was destroyed in the year 70 A.D., approximately seventy years from the birth of Christ.
Part 2
Mat 24:34--Verily I say unto you, this generation shall not pass, till all these things be fulfilled.
Matthew twenty-four is like the conclusion to Matthew twenty-three. After Jesus spoke to the generation of his day in the temple he walked off in the direction of the Mount of Olives and his disciples followed him verbally admiring the temple and asking for details of his prophecies for their generation and the last generation. Per their request Jesus imparted many signs. He told them that their generation would see the temple destroyed and then he began to talk of the last generation. The last generation would start with the birth of Israel and end with his appearance. He made no indication there would be a difference in the time frame (generation).
According to Moses the average length of a person’s life is 70 to 80 years. Moses was trusted with God’s law, so, I have to trust him when he said, “The days of our years are threescore (60) and ten; and if by reason of strength [they be] fourscore (80) years” (Ps. 90:10). This describes the generation that is defined as the length of an average life. Some people live longer and some live shorter, but the average person lives seventy or eighty years. Moses said it: not me.
King David lived to be exactly seventy and when he served his generation (all who lived at the same time) he died. Jesus will sit on the throne of David in Jerusalem and rule forever. I could entertain the idea of his age being relative to the big picture. God certainly did when he made reference to it speaking of Tyre in Isa 23:15—And it shall come to pass in that day, that Tyre shall be forgotten seventy years, according to the days of one king…
I hope that I have presented enough evidence as to how long I think a generation was to Christ when he put forth his prophecies in the Gospels. I believe that when I ask for an answer from God he gives it to me and I believe he has done just that. Of course I know some of you will probably disagree and that is perfectly alright. The thing about the right or wrong of our understanding is we will soon have all the answers to our questions.
Gail
Colin: I don't believe that the word of God is so complicated that it was written in a form that anyone of even average, or even below intelligence, could not understand it with a little bit of study and time. That is why I think that the length of time that a generation runs for is not indeterminable as what you are suggesting. Remember, the length of a generation is 40 years, and that all of the prophecies would be fullfilled within the course of a single generation after the Jews returned to their promised land in 1948. Accordingly, we are now in the gap period. We have to take the word of God at its literal meaning for the time that the prophecies were referring to, and not complicate matters to such a degree that we lose sight of the real picture. There are no glues anywhere in the word of God (that I can find), nor on the Internet, therefore, what is indeterminable is the length of time between when Israel became a nation and when the treaty of the Antichrist will be signed, heralding the beginning of the 70th week of Daniel. That reality remains a mystery, but not necessarily the length of time for a single generation. I have never ever studied the works of Sir Robert Anderson. As that is the case, I have no authority whatsoever to comment either way relative to whether he was right or wrong. Therefore, it is best that at this stage I refrain from doing so. However, what seems to stand out relative to Anderson is that even though we had all of this modern technology at our disposal, with computers etc, away back he had none of those advantages. Therefore, in that sense his works were exceptional from what I can gather even after this very brief encounter.
Hi All,
Re: Hebrews 1:1, 2
When I read Hebrews 1:1, 2, I thought that the context was of the recent past. In the time (recent years) that had passed from when this was written rather than a reference to the future last days. I believe it was in reference of when Jesus was alive and God was speaking through him like he did in times past through the prophets.
Hebrew 1:1--God …spoke in time past unto the fathers by the prophets …
1:2—[He] hath (has) in these last days spoken to us by [his] Son …
Many believe Paul wrote Hebrews. It is by him we know the falling away has to come first and then the son of perdition is revealed. Soon following our Savior Jesus Christ and our redemption!
Bob said, "This generation shall not pass till all be fulfilled" has been a problem for linguistic experts because the term he used could mean …”
Because of my lengthy post on this subject I thought I should mention a little more on the subject for the sake of my conclusions.
I don’t trust what them linguistic experts say. I certainly don’t believe them when they tell me I can’t understand my Bible. If a word can be used for so many different meanings I pick the one that makes the most sense.
It’s like Judge Judy says, “If it don’t make sense it is probably not true.”
The world makes the Word so difficult and when they can’t understand they tell you that you can’t understand. God tells me I can understand it. He wrote it for me why wouldn’t I be able to understand it?
God wants to show us things in this generation that have not come to the minds of the past generations. We are living in the very last of the last days and if you want To know those things you must: Leave all commentaries on the shelf, study the Word for yourself with diligence, prayer, and faith. Ask questions and look for the answer in the living word of God. Come to your own conclusions. When you find what you think are the answers prove them to yourself first, then confirm there are others who are like minded.
Judge Judy also says: “if it makes sense it is probably true.”
I hope none of this sounded matter of fact or know it all because it is not meant to be. I’m just sharing my thoughts and observations. I’m always open for reproof but please give any praise to God. I really enjoy sharing with ya’ll. I apologize for being such a chatty Kathy.
Blessings,
Gail
Great comments everyone.
Thanks so much for you valuable input. Robert's comment regarding 40 years seems to me to hold a lot of sense.
However if I may throw anothr log on the fire: always in scripture years are measured by 360 day years not our regular 365. This has been well prven by the working out of the first 69 of the 70 weeks of Daniel 9.
This is why the 70th week simply cannot be 7 years of 365 days per year. That would stick out like a sore thumb when placed with the first 69 weeks of years of 360 days per year.
This is also why I am not looking for a man to come along and offer a 7 year peace deal. In my mind this is God himself saying this is how long it will last...7 years at 360 days per year. This also fits when wth beast does the dirty on Israel after 1260 days in the middle of the 7 years. 2 x 1260= 2520 days which make it about 36 days adrift from our 7 years. 7 x 365.25= 2556.75.
That doesn't dismiss Robert's proposal re; 40 years for a generation at all but adds a little to it. It is all so interesting folks. Thanks again for all you great input.
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